The Coming Storm: A 9/11 2.0 Threat and Why America’s Institutions Are Still Fighting Yesterday’s 2nd Generation War
This article draws on research for Book 4 of the Reforging the Sword series. Titled *Shadows of Division*, the book depicts the outbreak of widespread 4th Generation Warfare in the US homeland.
For nearly two years I have tracked the evolving (unclassified and open source) intelligence picture surrounding what many credible analysts are now calling a “9/11 2.0” attack on the American homeland. As we move deeper into what appears to be the terrorists’ operational window (mid-December 2025 through May 2026), more and more raw intelligence is reaching the public domain. What follows is my synthesis of that reporting combined with thirty-plus years of studying Maneuver Warfare, the generations of modern war, and the institutional inertia that keeps large organizations trapped in obsolete paradigms.
The Nature of the Threat
The enemy intends to rape, torture, murder, and butcher as many American civilians as possible while live-streaming the carnage via GoPro cameras and social media in real time. These are not suicide bombers in the classic sense; they are death squads trained to fight until killed. Negotiation is impossible; any apparent offer to talk is simply a deception to buy time for rearming or maneuver.
These fighters, drawn primarily from Al Qaeda, ISIS-Khorasan Province (ISIS-KP), and affiliated networks, have entered the United States through four main channels during the 2021–2025 period:
Unsecured southern and northern borders
The chaotic 2021 Afghanistan airlift and subsequent refugee flows
Legitimate visas and passports from state sponsors
Direct infiltration supported by criminal cartels
Estimates of committed fighters inside the CONUS range from 1,500 to nearly 10,000. Many received advanced training in Afghanistan on the very bases we built, taught by former Afghan commandos and special forces who were themselves trained by U.S. Green Berets and Marines. Their weapons (AKs, belt-fed machine guns, RPGs, grenades, explosives, sniper rifles, and possibly man-portable chemical munitions) were smuggled in with cartel assistance and are already pre-positioned.
The planned attack is a true Fourth-Generation Warfare (4GW) operation: complex, coordinated, synchronized, and nationwide. Ten to fifteen cities will be struck nearly simultaneously (adjusted for time zones) during morning rush hour on a Monday–Thursday early in the work week. Primary targets appear to be Tier-2 cities (population 100,000–500,000) that possess Level-1 trauma centers and large veteran or active-duty populations, payback for two decades of war in the Middle East.
Hospitals are expected to be physically occupied and turned into charnel houses, possibly with nerve agents. Shopping malls, churches, and schools are secondary or follow-on objectives. Commercial aviation remains vulnerable to new binary chemical IEDs that defeat most airport screening. There is persistent chatter about a symbolic siege of Washington, D.C. (White House, Capitol, Pentagon), though I remain skeptical of its feasibility at scale.
Supporting cells will ambush additional first responders, and vehicle-borne IEDs (VBIEDs) will block escape routes, creating the “fish in a barrel” conditions we saw in Mumbai (2008, Paris 2015, and Moscow 2024.
Why We Remain Vulnerable: The Generations of War Problem
Even with President Donald J. Trump’s and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth’s determined reform efforts, the U.S. Department of Defense remains a Second-Generation Warfare (2GW) institution at its core: led by self serving careerists, centralized, process-oriented, inward-focused, and reliant on attrition through synchronized firepower and mass oversaw by self serving careerists. That culture worked (barely) against other industrial-age armies, but it is catastrophically unsuited to 4GW threats that are decentralized, culturally savvy, and fight by entirely different rules.
Tragically, the same 2GW paradigm dominates most American law enforcement agencies and first-responder organizations, especially in Blue states and cities. They still train almost exclusively for the lone active-shooter incident: form a stack, make entry, swarm the gunman. They are not postured, equipped, or doctrinally prepared for coordinated, mutually supporting fire-team attacks backed by ambushes, VBIEDs, and follow-on cells.
When the balloon goes up, first responders will arrive expecting one or two gunmen in a school or mall and will instead be fed into prepared kill zones by terrorists who understand fire and movement far better than most American patrol officers do. The Moscow Crocus City Hall attack (March 2024) and the New Orleans French Quarter attack (1 January 2025) should have been wake-up calls. They were not.
In short, while the enemy is executing Fourth-Generation Warfare with Third-Generation tactics, we are still stuck in the Second Generation, and hoping that “more training” and “better equipment” through several years of Cultural Marxist enhanced DEI programs will solve a doctrinal and cultural problem.
What Must Be Done, Right Now
Accept reality. No federal cavalry is coming for days or weeks. You are on your own.
Tier-2 city residents: Form neighborhood mutual-support groups immediately. Use existing HOAs, church groups, or veteran organizations. Stock food, water, medical supplies, communications, and ammunition for a minimum of 30 days.
Every licensed carrier should carry daily. Every vehicle should contain a get-home bag with water, food, trauma kit, spare magazines, and sturdy footwear.
Rural and small-town Americans: Establish armed neighborhood watches now. Be prepared to receive refugees fleeing nearby cities and to defend against tertiary attacks.
First responders outside the primary target envelope: Dust off your mutual-aid agreements and conduct no-notice exercises built around the Moscow/Mumbai/Beslan model, not the “single active shooter” model.
Political and institutional leaders: Stop pretending that 2GW answers will defeat a 4GW threat. Decentralize authority, push resources and decision-making to the lowest possible level, and adopt mission-type tactics (Auftragstaktik) before it is too late. Move away from Cultural Marxism and back to true merit based professionalism.
We have somewhere between zero days and five months. The clock is ticking, and the enemy has spent years preparing while we argued about pronouns and diversity training.
Prepare accordingly.
Donald E. Vandergriff
3 December 2025
Bibliography
Abbott, Daniel H., ed. Handbook of 5GW: A 5th Generation Approach to 21st Century Warfare and Conflict. Waterside Productions, 2010.
Benton, LeRoy D. Fourth Generation Warfare: The Need for a Comprehensive Approach. CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform, 2012.
Chifu, Iulian. “The Fourth Generation of Informational Warfare.” Romanian Intelligence Studies Review 22 (2019): 67–105.
Echevarria II, Antulio J. Fourth-Generation Warfare and Other Myths. Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 2005.
Evans, Michael. “Elegant Irrelevance Revisited: A Critique of Fourth-Generation Warfare.” Contemporary Security Policy 26, no. 2 (2005): 242–258.
Freedman, Lawrence. “War Evolves into the Fourth Generation: A Comment on Thomas X. Hammes.” Contemporary Security Policy 26, no. 2 (2005): 254–263.
Hammes, Thomas X. The Sling and the Stone: On War in the 21st Century. Zenith Press, 2006.
Hammes, Thomas X. “Fourth Generation Warfare Evolves, Fifth Emerges.” Military Review (May–June 2007): 2–14.
Lind, William S. “Understanding Fourth Generation War.” Military Review (September–October 2004): 12–16.
Lind, William S. “Two Marine Corps.” Marine Corps Gazette (June 2004).
Lind, William S., and Gregory A. Thiele. 4th Generation Warfare Handbook. Castalia House, 2015.
Lind, William S., et al. “The Changing Face of War: Into the Fourth Generation.” Marine Corps Gazette (October 1989): 22–26.
Nofi, Albert A. Recent Trends in Thinking About Warfare. Consortium for Applied Research on Military Operations, 2006.
Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community. March 2025. https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2025-Unclassified-Report.pdf.
U.S. Department of Defense. 2025 Worldwide Threat Assessment. Defense Intelligence Agency, 2025. https://armedservices.house.gov/uploadedfiles/2025_dia_statement_for_the_record.pdf.
U.S. Department of Homeland Security. Homeland Threat Assessment 2025. October 2024. https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/2024-10/24_0930_ia_24-320-ia-publication-2025-hta-final-30sep24-508.pdf.
U.S. Department of Homeland Security. National Terrorism Advisory System Bulletin. June 22, 2025. https://www.dhs.gov/ntas/advisory/national-terrorism-advisory-system-bulletin-june-22-2025.
U.S. House Committee on Homeland Security. Terror Threat Snapshot: January 22, 2025 Update. 2025. https://homeland.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Updated-Terror-Threat-Snapshot-copy.pdf.
U.S. House Committee on Homeland Security. Terror Threat Snapshot. June 11, 2025. https://homeland.house.gov/2025/06/11/threat-snapshot-house-homeland-releases-updated-terror-threat-snapshot-assessment-in-wake-of-boulder-dc-terrorist-attacks/.
U.S. National Counterterrorism Center. Counterterrorism Digest: Al-Qa‘ida’s Recent Calls to Conduct Attacks Highlights Enduring Threat. September 2025. https://www.dni.gov/files/NCTC/documents/news_documents/NCTC-Al-Qaida-Recent-Calls-to-Conduct-Attacks-Highlights-Enduring-Threat-Sept2025.pdf.
U.S. Treasury, Financial Crimes Enforcement Network. FinCEN Advisory: FIN-2025-A001. April 1, 2025. https://www.fincen.gov/sites/default/files/advisory/2025-04-01/FinCEN-Advisory-ISIS-508C.pdf.
Vandergriff, Donald E. Adopting Mission Command: Developing Leaders for a Superior Command Culture. Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 2019.
Vandergriff, Donald E. “Analysis by Donald E. Vandergriff: The New Reality of War through the Lens of Mission Command, Maneuver Warfare, and Generations of War.” Donald Vandergriff (blog). November 10, 2025. https://donvandergriff.substack.com/p/analysis-by-donald-e-vandergriff.
Vandergriff, Donald E. “America’s Second Civil War: The 4th and 5th Generation Siege on Our Constitutional Republic.” Donald Vandergriff (blog). October 8, 2025. https://donvandergriff.substack.com/p/americas-second-civil-war-the-4th.
Vandergriff, Donald E. Manning the Future Legions of the United States: Finding and Developing Tomorrow’s Centurions. Westport, CT: Praeger Security International, 2008.
Vandergriff, Donald E. Mission Command: The Who, What, Where, When and Why—An Anthology. Independently published, 2017.
Vandergriff, Donald E., and Stephen Webber, eds. Mission Command: The Who, What, Where, When and Why—An Anthology Part II. Charleston, SC: CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform, 2019.
Vandergriff, Donald E. The Missing Link: Developing Personnel for Mission Command, A Superior Command Culture. [Place of publication not specified]: [Publisher not specified], 2017.
Vandergriff, Donald E. The Path to Victory: America’s Army and the Revolution in Human Affairs. Novato, CA: Presidio Press, 2002.
Vandergriff, Donald E. Raising the Bar: Creating and Nurturing Adaptability to Deal with the Changing Face of War. Washington, DC: Center for Defense Information Press, 2006.
Vandergriff, Donald E. “4th Generation Warfare: The Insidious Evolution of Far-Left Strategies in American Politics.” Donald Vandergriff (blog). August 27, 2025. https://donvandergriff.substack.com/p/4th-generation-warfare-the-insidious [Inferred from references in ; direct URL not located in search results].
Vandergriff, Donald E. “Feeding the Flames of Freedom: How the U.S. Department of War Can Ignite Mexico’s Gen-Z Revolution Against the Cartel Shadows.” Donald Vandergriff (blog). November 19, 2025. https://donvandergriff.substack.com/p/feeding-the-flames-of-freedom-how.
Vandergriff, Donald E. “My Review of Reconceptualizing War by Dr. Ben Zweibelson.” Donald Vandergriff (blog). April 25, 2025. https://donvandergriff.substack.com/p/my-review-of-reconceptualizing-war.
Vandergriff, Donald E. “Preface to BG Bob Krumm’s (ret.) RealClear Defense Article, ‘War Is a Young Man’s Game.’” Donald Vandergriff (blog). October 17, 2025. https://donvandergriff.substack.com/p/preface-to-bg-bob-krumms-ret-realclear.
Vandergriff, Donald E. Spirit, Blood and Treasure: The American Cost of Battle in the 21st Century. Novato, CA: Presidio Press, 2001.
Vandergriff, Donald E. “The Unyielding Sentinel: Lt. Col. Asad ‘Genghis’ Khan – A True Combat Leader Forged in Fire.” Donald Vandergriff (blog). October 28, 2025. https://donvandergriff.substack.com/p/the-unyielding-sentinel-lt-col-asad.
Vandergriff, Donald E. “Vandergriff Analysis of ‘What Would War with China Look Like—in the US Homeland?’ Sandor Fabian, July 15, 2025, Modern War Institute, USMA.” Donald Vandergriff (blog). [Date not specified in results; circa July 2025]. https://donvandergriff.substack.com/p/vandergriff-analysis-of-what-would [Inferred from ].
Vandergriff, Donald E. “Vandergriff Preface to ‘President Trump Recognizes Fourth Generation War’ by William S. Lind.” Donald Vandergriff (blog). [Date not specified in results; circa 2025]. https://donvandergriff.substack.com/p/vandergriff-preface-to-president [Inferred from ].
Vandergriff, Donald E., and John Sayen. “Why It Is Time to Adapt to Changing Conditions.” In Spirit, Blood and Treasure: The American Cost of Battle in the 21st Century, edited by Donald E. Vandergriff, [page range not specified]. Novato, CA: Presidio Press, 2001. [Chapter contribution dealing with 4GW adaptation].
Vandergriff, Donald E. “The Culture Wars.” In Digital War: A View from the Front Lines, edited by Robert L. Bateman III, [page range not specified]. New York: iBooks, 2003. [Chapter contribution on military culture in context of emerging 4GW threats].
Vox Day. “Five Generations of Modern War.” Vox Popoli, July 1, 2025. https://voxday.net/2025/07/01/an-ai-tour-de-force/.
This is a legit analysis, until you find yourself gangstalked, and the domestic surveillance infrastructure in the US is brought into focus and you see its extent. There is a full-blown Stasi built in the US. Everyone reading this has somebody in their neighborhood who has listened in their house, who knows who you are, and who maintains a file on you like you would not believe - just like the old Stasi because that is what it is modelled on.
When these infiltrators arrive, they land in somebody's sector. The moment they find a place to lay their head and are planted, somebody is responsible for them, and the assembly of their file begins. If you have been gangstalked/Zersetzunged/harassed with surveillance, you will know what is suddenly assigned to them, and how it will get everything on them. And if they are capable of any sort of radicalism, that thing will drop on them like it drops on gangstalking victims, only they will not be shown it or harassed. But their file will immediately grow, every communication they have, Cell, email, conversation in the interior of their home, is captured, and surveillance knows everyone they are dealing with and everything they are doing, and everything they are planning.
In short, none of this will happen without the tacit acquiescence of US domestic intelligence and the various agencies it provides its collection products to, just like 9/11.
Until you are gangstalked, and see the size and extent of the covert civilian-volunteer/embed machine, you cannot understand. I mean the surveillance families hand their eight year olds over to their school command, and those kids are helping build files on the other kids, and if one appears a problem, those kids can be operationalized, and used to derail that kid. Lots of honors kids get hooked on drugs by friends at the behest of this machine, to keep them from becoming a problem. Against something that committed, terrorists do not stand a chance, unless our intel services want them to succeed.
One imagines the carnage and the resultant response. The Islamic raiders will ultimately be cornered likely by SOF units in country and other assets army and Marine Corps deployed as combat elements to find and kill these terrorists. The longer term effects will be chilling. The response? Who knows, one wonders what happens when veteran militias decide to start their own campaigns, not sure you want to be an asylum seeking refugee who has been in the states for 20 years and not assimilated. Then on a global scale all bets are off. The latest NSS laid it out and you can be sure if something along the lines of the predicted terror attacks occurrs on Trump’s watch all Hell will break loose. The further issue will be economic in nature, the country will halt and so will the world, after the global hand wringing they will be faced with an America that will have zero patience for their brand of trade. The current quietude from the planners of this attack maybe the result of communications from the middle eastern nations that have a monetary dog in the hunt and perhaps don’t want to be on the receiving end of a subsurface American navy and their updated target lists..perhaps even more interesting is that if people read the NSS and give it a chance, than the need for the attacks becomes harder to justify from the stand point of the financiers. It will NOT change the mind of the Jihadists they are on, but it may slow them down or even aid in finding them and rolling them up. Time will tell and we can’t say we weren’t warned.